This week is perfect to be discussing U.S. housing dynamics as the March sales numbers for existing and new homes were just published. The report was mixed. Sales of existing homes rose 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 … Continued
Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum. Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014. One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued
Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation. … Continued
Sideways move in stocks – just a pause or sign of fatigue after six-year run? Several different measures point to gradual buildup in complacency over the years Human nature not to want to leave party early, which is fine unless … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued
Central banks’ increasing role in deciding fate of stocks R between S&P and Shanghai index breaks down due to CB activism N/T direction for U.S. stocks look promising but not M/T, as QE morphine is lacking Did U.S. stocks go … Continued
Tremendous growth in student and auto loans (non-revolving) over the years First back-to-back drop in revolving consumer credit in February since June-July 12 Consumers holding back, even as they are saving more – not enough juice for U.S. economy The … Continued
GE stages massive breakout Friday on back of massive buyback announcement S&P 500 companies splurged $565 billion on share repurchases in 2014 As/when buybacks dry up, support zones become more vulnerable Before last week, GE shares had been on a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed! Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued
Energy stocks correlate with oil price; former holding up better in current decline Sector job cuts mediocre; oil and extraction hourly earnings another high in Feb Companies acting as if bottom is in for oil; investors buying into this optimism … Continued