U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14. They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4). Profits peaked … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued
Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance. Has truth in it. For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate. As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it. Of course, all … Continued
U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs. This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices. Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory. … Continued
Post-Trump victory, the Treasury yield curve has moved up as well as steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 47 basis points to 2.34 percent. Yields have risen one full point since the July 6th all-time low of 1.34 percent. Inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation. The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years. At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound. Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued
“…I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform.” The above quote is from a weekend interview president-elect Donald Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal. The article also talks about his willingness to keep parts of the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2016. 10-year note: The 10-year yield (cash) has been trapped in a descending channel for the past three decades, having peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981. From the July … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in 3Q16, owing primarily to inventory buildup and increase in exports. The two respectively contributed 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent to real GDP growth. Real final sales to domestic … Continued