Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued
The top two holders of Treasury securities have been cutting back their holdings. In August, China and Japan respectively held $1.19 trillion and $1.14 trillion. China’s peaked at $1.32 trillion in November 2013 and Japan’s at $1.24 trillion a year … Continued
One of the hallmarks of post-Great Recession recovery has been subdued capital expenditures. In 2Q16, real non-residential fixed investment was $2.19 trillion (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) – essentially flat since 3Q14. Investment peaked at $2.22 trillion in 3Q15. … Continued
Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent. There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016. 10-year note: In late September, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, said the bank might be able to help the U.S. economy in a downturn if it could buy stocks … Continued
August non-farm job openings fell by 388,000 month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million – an eight-month low. This was the largest m/m decrease since August last year. July’s 5.83 million essentially matched 5.79 million in July … Continued
Building on the crude theme a week ago, spot West Texas Intermediate crude did indeed break out of a declining trend line drawn from May 2015 (Chart 1). It rallied 3.3 percent for the week. For the last eight sessions, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016. 10-year note: Bloomberg ran a story on Tuesday saying the ECB would probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the end of quantitative easing, and that it may … Continued
U.S. banks’ commercial & industrial loans dropped $6.5 billion month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion (Chart 1). These loans have come a long way – rising from a cycle low of $1.18 trillion in … Continued