The price-to-earnings ratio is probably the most commonly used tool in equity valuation. Within that, all too often, forward earnings are used. Trailing earnings are seldom employed. In and of itself, in a normal cycle, there is nothing wrong with … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued
NYSE margin debt fell $11.9 billion month-over-month in February to $435.8 billion. This was the 10th month since the $507.2-billion peak last April. Margin debt has dropped 14 percent since that peak (Chart 1). For some historical perspective, in 2000 … Continued
“Manufacturing and net exports have continued to be hard hit by slow global growth and the significant appreciation of the dollar since 2014… Low oil prices have also resulted in large-scale layoffs in the energy sector and adverse spillovers to … Continued
There was a bit of good news in pending home sales on Monday. The index jumped 3.5 percent month-over-month in February to 109.1 (Chart 1). This was the sharpest sequential increase in a year. Pending home sales are based on … Continued
Dividends are an important source of income for U.S. households. In 4Q15, they came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $877.1 billion. On a four-quarter rolling average basis, personal dividend income was $868.2 billion in that quarter – … Continued
Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows. From low … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 22, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: This could not get any funnier. A week after the FOMC statement, and later Janet Yellen, Fed chair, shifted message from hawkish to … Continued
Last year, with the bull market in its seventh year, a June 19th post sought to find out where several valuation metrics stood. The conclusion was that they were in uncharted territory. With three more quarters of data since, a … Continued