Even during recent sell-off, Investors Intelligence bears never went over 20 Overall sentiment too smug, but buy-the-dip complacency has paid off – so far Risk is, stretched sentiment readings mean there are too many on one side of trade After … Continued
For second week running, hedge funds stayed net long VIX futures Three times since 2009 when this has happened, equities have gone on to rally Ideal scenario: SPX goes lower and successfully tests 1900, just in time for year-end rally … Continued
VIX looks to be setting up to move higher near-term Medium-term technicals halfway through unwinding overbought conditions Long-term, potentially saucer bottom in making, could be headed a lot higher in months to come Last Friday, even as all the major … Continued
Margin debt continues to hover near all-time highs, with some subtle differences underneath Fourteen-percent rise in SPX since Feb unable to inspire more leverage-taking Naz correlation suggests margin debt headed lower in outer months In today’s algo- and dark pool-dominated … Continued
Shorts continued to raise bets, with short interest at multi-year highs October 15th reversal followed by sharp advance probably caused short-covering With QE gone and broken trendline resistance on S&P 500 intact, shorts could get active again Bulls probably took … Continued
Spot VIX has had topsy-turvy ride this month First time in three years, hedge funds went net long VIX futures last week On three other occasions past five years, this preceded lower VIX in outer weeks/months The VIX has done … Continued
Long-term, S&P 500 index still within six-year trend channel November-2012 trendline broken late September in midst of recent decline Possible test of that broken trendline potentially ideal place for shorts to build positions In the big scheme of things, despite … Continued
Post-October 15th reversal, equities have come too far too soon Sentiment less frothy, but in worse-case scenario has room to go a lot lower Having expended lots of energy past several sessions, bulls lack buying prowess for now Phew! Some … Continued
Bulls desperately need to retake 200-dma on S&P 500 Potential unwinding of oversold technical conditions can act as tailwind Failure to build on Wednesday’s hammer reversal pattern will mean rockier times down the line Last week, we discussed the significance … Continued
Options market at levels consistent with bottom in stocks, at least near-term Signal in midst of several other grossly oversold technical indicators Tone of rally to decide if it is investable or tradable bottom Extreme readings in the options market … Continued