Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 316.9k, down 59.5k. The Bank of Japan, which began to use its balance sheet as a policy tool much earlier than its peers in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.4k, up 7.2k. “Don’t fight the Fed” is an oft-quoted phrase in financial markets. When post-2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its … Continued
Foreigners seem to be heavily wagering that the US is headed for a recession. They have been selling US stocks and buying treasury notes/bonds with aggression. On a net basis in October, foreigners sold $24.4 billion in US stocks. Since … Continued
This week is crucial. The FOMC meets, and an inflation report that could potentially impact monetary policy next year is on deck as well. Leading up to this, both large- and small-caps met with heavy selling pressure at crucial resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 369.2k, up 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The day the two-day meeting begins, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November’s consumer price … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied 5.4 percent in November. There were concurrently five one-or-higher CBOE equity-only put-to-call-ratio sessions, with three having registered in up days. This is not normal. The 21-day moving average of the ratio at mid-0.80s on Wednesday cannot … Continued
Most traders on Wall Street grew up in a low-interest-rate, low-inflation environment. It is hard for them to relate to why Volcker acted the way he did in the late-‘70s/early-‘80s. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen operated at a time when inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.8k, down 24.5k. Markets and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech was interpreted as dovish – probably … Continued
The S&P 500 has reached a crucial stage – kind of a make-or-break. Since peaking at 4819 in January this year, the large cap index has made two important lower highs – one in March and the other in August. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321.3k, down 21.8k. Markets and FOMC hawks are on diverging paths. In the futures market, traders expect the fed funds rate to peak just … Continued