On a 12-month rolling total basis, foreigners have been selling US stocks since January. This did not change in May. Foreigners kept turning their back on US equities in May. They sold $26.6 billion worth. Monthly data tends to be … Continued
As 2Q earnings season got underway, the S&P 500 large cap index broke out of 2800. If it were to rally toward its late-January all-time high, it has to first win over resistance around 2840. The S&P 500 (2809.55) faced … Continued
There are some early signs markets are undergoing a subtle change – particularly as relates to the dynamics between small- and large-caps. Right after Donald Trump was elected US president on November 8, 2016, small-caps became one of the go-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 16-29 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB ($58.47) bulls late June defended support at $57-plus. Subsequently, the ETF pushed higher past … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 500.1k, up 144.8k. Minutes for the June 12-13 FOMC meeting were released last Thursday. The Fed raised interest rates in that meeting. This was … Continued
It is increasingly getting difficult to discern if US markets are in risk-on or risk-off mode. There is a bid under the long end of the sovereign bond market. This in general is a risk-off behavior. Both the S&P 500 … Continued
The US dollar index is at an interesting juncture. The peak in January coincided with a 61.8-percent retracement of the 41.2–percent decline between July 2001 and April 2008. Right now, it has essentially gone sideways the past five weeks, unable … Continued
On the weekly chart, SPY remains grossly overbought, but near term there is room to rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Options can help. US core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 1.96 percent year-over-year in May – essentially two percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued