The US dollar index (93.44) of late is showing some nice price action. Will it be enough to lead non-commercials to begin to accumulate net longs in US dollar index futures? A sustained rally can reverberate through a whole host … Continued
Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden. This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued
The Russell 2000 small cap index is dangerously close to breaking down. On Wednesday, it violated a rising trend line from February last year – albeit only slightly. Of the four major indices, the Russell 2000 is the first to … Continued
Amidst 2Q17 earnings and elevated multiples, some signs of fatigue are showing up on major U.S. indices. As of last Thursday, 2Q17 operating earnings of S&P 500 companies were on course for $30.70. In the year-ago quarter, they were $25.70 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the July 1-14 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq The bearish engulfing candle of June 9 when the composite … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued