One of the knocks against October’s selloff in stocks is that there was no capitulation. That depends on what indicators one looks at. On October 10, the ratio between NYSE decliners and advancers read 7.9. In that same session, down … Continued
VIX continues to struggle to take out its high from 13 sessions ago, even as major equity indices dropped to fresh lows yesterday. Non-commercials in the meantime are actively covering their net shorts. At least near term, there is room … Continued
The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year. Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly. Will the current selloff evolve the same way? Too early to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the October 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Three weeks ago, XLB (50.51) fell out of a slightly rising ascending channel. The drop … Continued
US stocks are trying to stabilize after a decent drawdown. How things evolve will depend a lot on how margin debt, money-market fund assets and foreigners’ purchases evolve in the weeks/months to come. After a seven-session, 7.8-percent decline intraday between … Continued
After a rough two-week selloff, major US equity indices last week saw both bulls and bears try to put their foot down. The former put up a good show early in the week but the latter grabbed the first opportunity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record. They have since reduced … Continued
US stocks had a good August. The S&P 500 large cap index jumped three percent in that month to 2901.52. Foreigners did not lend a helping hand. Net purchases of US equities by foreigners were minus $16.9 billion in August. … Continued
On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion. This at a time when the US economy is in expansion. In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here. The … Continued