Equity bulls rallied the major US stock indices strongly early last week, but the momentum faded as the week progressed. One of the reasons for this is the lack of potential tailwind coming from heightened bearish sentiment. Equity bulls are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 713k, down 20.9k. The 10-year treasury yield was volatile this week, to say the least. The five sessions went like this – up, down, … Continued
After three or four down weeks, major US equity indices have reached decent support. Right here and now, odds favor bulls more than bears. From its July 27th high through last Wednesday’s low, the S&P 500 gave back eight percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 702.3k, down 42k. The 10-year treasury yield this week made what could turn out to be an important breakout. Or could it? Last October, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 16, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 363.1k, up 76.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of last Tuesday, they held 363,128 contracts, up from … Continued
The 1Q earnings season begins in earnest this week, with a host of financials getting the ball rolling. For large-caps, this year’s revision trend is flat to slightly up, but next year’s is decidedly up, which is kind of interesting … Continued
Last week, both VIX and the S&P 500 declined. Ordinarily, the two are negatively correlated. This took place even as the volatility index is finding it difficult to enduringly stay above 32-33. Last week, VIX and the S&P 500 moved … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 285.1k, up 111k. After back-to-back weekly spinning tops in 10-year treasury rates in the last two weeks, bond bears (on price) defended 1.86 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 is sitting on crucial support, a decisive break of which could send bears into panic, and that could set up a decent opportunity for a counter-trend rally. The S&P 500 is hanging by a thread. Down 2.8 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 55.8k, up 40.2k. As expected, nothing much of substance came out of the FOMC meeting this week. The fed funds rate was left untouched … Continued