The federal government is up to the gills in debt. Interest payments run up in the billions every year. This was not much of an issue in a low-interest-rate environment. But right now, the Federal Reserve is tightening. Higher rates … Continued
It is a seasonally strong period for stocks. Bulls are wasting no time getting ready for this. Stocks are rallying. In the best of circumstances, there is room to run still, with the caveat that an important inflation report is … Continued
In the early months of 2020, the Fed aggressively flooded the system with liquidity, meeting three times in March alone. That was the need of the hour. Now, it probably needs to act with a similar speed – only in … Continued
VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued
VIX witnessed a spike reversal last week, before coming under massive downward pressure this week, helping equities. Equity bulls could receive further help should Friday’s CPI behave. It turns out VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. On Friday, it … Continued
The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued
The 2Q earnings season begins in earnest next week. Ahead of this, major equity indices are at or near their highs. The revision trend was positive throughout the quarter. Investors heavily bought into this. Their post-earnings reaction will be telling. … Continued
As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three. Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued