After rallying in June and most of July, stocks began selling off late last month. Bulls nonetheless have managed to defend major support, even as stars seem to be lining up for them – magnitude and duration notwithstanding. Bulls are … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs. Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure. Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture. Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million. … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows. Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory. Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance. After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling. How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued
The 10-year T-yield not only lost a rising trend line from July 2016 but also decade-old support at 2.62 percent. TLT has been on a tear, but is overbought; digestion of the recent gains is the path of least resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.8k, down 13k. With pressure growing from diverse quarters, including the White House, to stay pat in this week’s meeting, the Fed went ahead … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point hike is expected, so is a shift to a dovish bias. Watch out if stocks, beaten up the past two and a half months, cannot rally on this, and/or shorts quickly show up … Continued