The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days. Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically. At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued
“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought. Although several saw increased upside risks … Continued
After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued
Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying. Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market is in upheaval. So to speak. Ten-year Treasury yields have broken out. Chart 1 is a monthly chart. If in the next couple of sessions, these yields stay north of at least 2.5 percent – … Continued
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields peaked in September 1981 at 15.8 percent, then dropped all the way to bottom at 1.34 percent in July 2016. Some bull market in bonds! On an absolute basis, the 10-year is still trapped in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 44.2k, down 89k. Is the big one around the corner? The big breakout, that is? Ten-year Treasury yields, at one point at 2.5 percent, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued