Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 240k, up 10.9k. Non-commercials nailed it. In the prior week, they had built net longs to the highest since December 2007, and were rewarded. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2016. 10-year note: The 10-year yield (cash) has been trapped in a descending channel for the past three decades, having peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981. From the July … Continued
In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
Gold bugs should be wishing the U.S. government begins to run larger deficits. There are tons of reasons why the yellow metal has been languishing since it peaked in September 2011, but it turns out it does correlate negatively with … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The IMF is at it again. This week, it reiterated its stance that advanced economies should maintain accommodative monetary policies. By that it … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year? The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued
Looking around, there is no lack of things for investors to worry about. Although that is not the impression one gets looking at how gold is trading. After an incessant rally, Chinese stocks are in the midst of a sharp … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 23, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields pushed up nearly 21 basis points for the week. Sales of both new and existing homes did well in May (even though … Continued