CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued

US Dollar Index Rallies 5.6% in 5 Weeks – If Sustained, Can Impact Inflation, Exports, Economy, Earnings

posted in: Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

The US dollar index has rallied strongly in the past five weeks.  This can potentially have consequences for US inflation, exports, economy, earnings and what not.  But was the rise enough for FOMC members to discuss in the March meeting? … Continued

M2 Growth Deceleration Plus Recent Backup In Rates No Recipe For Overheating

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought.  Al­though several saw increased upside risks … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued

Markets’ Focus Shifts To Rising Inflation And Inflation Expectations – Would Fed’s?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

How times have changed?  It did not take long for markets’ attention to do a 360 from fears of deflation to that of inflation. January’s consumer price index was reported Wednesday.  It was stronger than expected.  In the 12 months … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on.  Doves versus hawks.  At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock.  The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm.  This … Continued