Bears Had Excellent Opportunity, But Latest Bull-Bear Tug Of War Likely Going Bulls’ Way

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

US equity bears had an excellent opportunity to push prices lower.  Indices did come under pressure.  But it looks like once again bulls managed to put their foot down on time. The S&P 500 large cap index made a new … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.7k, down 73. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.99 percent) rose from 2.81 percent on August 22 to Friday’s high of three percent.  At least … Continued

IWM – Risks Elevated Medium Term, Coin Toss Near Term

Even though trade tensions particularly between the US and China have heated up, small-caps – supposed beneficiaries of a trade war – have stalled of late.  Medium term, downside risks are huge.  In the very near term, it is a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 4, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.8k, up 152.9k. Bulls and bears went back and forth this week around the 50-day moving average until Friday when the 10-year rate (2.94 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday.  Inflation perked up … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week.  The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been … Continued

Russell 2000 Up Strong 9.1% YTD – At Critical Technical Juncture

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps have rallied nicely year-to-date.  Supposedly, they benefit the most from last December’s tax cuts and are also considered insulated from negative effects of a trade war.  They now sit at critical technical juncture. Over the last eight weeks, the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation.  On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy.  This … Continued