QE Only A Matter Of Time?
Two different central bankers from two different continents made news yesterday – both giving us a nod and a wink that at best low rates are here to stay and at worst more stimulus may be coming our way. Peter … Continued
Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued
Any chance S&P 500 and Shanghai index reestablish once-decent correlation?
Central banks’ increasing role in deciding fate of stocks R between S&P and Shanghai index breaks down due to CB activism N/T direction for U.S. stocks look promising but not M/T, as QE morphine is lacking Did U.S. stocks go … Continued
HYG, JNK not likely to take kindly to hawkish Fed, let alone end of ZIRP
Last six years, U.S. high-yield bond issuance of $1.6tn This week, several Fed officials signal imminent rate hike this year Junk bonds – popular risk-on vehicle – not likely to take kindly to end of ZIRP A week ago, HYG, … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week! In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week. On … Continued
FOMC may signal rate-hike plans pushed back
As FOMC meets, markets will be looking for clues on rate-hike timing Consensus, which had been betting on mid-year hike, vacillating of late Lower-than-expected inflation, strong dollar excuses for Fed not to move The Federal Open Market Committee begins its … Continued
Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued
Gold probably wants to go lower near-term
James Bullard’s recent dovish comments fail to ignite interest in gold Possibility of triple-bottom reversal, but needs confirmation With recent thrust waning, near-term bias is down Since its peak in September 2011 at $1,924/ounce, gold has been trapped in a … Continued
Bulls have baton, bears hot on heels
Bulls desperately need to retake 200-dma on S&P 500 Potential unwinding of oversold technical conditions can act as tailwind Failure to build on Wednesday’s hammer reversal pattern will mean rockier times down the line Last week, we discussed the significance … Continued