After the October-December rout, US stocks rallied big in January and February-to-date. Several data points such as consumer and investor sentiment followed suit, but their rise has been muted. For longs, this could mean there is room for more strength, … Continued
There are some interesting dynamics in play in the small-cap sector – encompassing both fundamentals and technicals. Post-tax cuts of last December, earnings estimates were sharply revised higher. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law … Continued
First-quarter earnings are coming in strong, but stocks are stuck in a rut. There is room to rally near term, with tons of overhead resistance. One common complaint among the bulls is that US stocks of late have failed to … Continued
After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued
After healthy growth last three quarters, the U.S. economy is in deceleration, magnitude and duration notwithstanding. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was forecasting 1Q18 real GDP growth of 1.9 percent, revised down from 2.5 percent, reflecting this week’s … Continued
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 – signed into law on December 22 last year – allows U.S. companies to repatriate the cash they have socked away overseas by paying 15.5 percent, rather than the previous 35 percent. … Continued
Small-business optimism remains near multi-decade highs. Small-cap stocks do not quite share this optimism. The NFIB optimism index rose two points month-over-month in January to 106.9, just a hair’s breadth away from November’s 107.5, which was a 34-year high. Optimism … Continued
Small-caps have come alive in the past month, with the caveat that the Russell 2000 small cap index is still 1.4 percent from its all-time high of July. The bulls’ best hope near term: squeeze non-commercials. Post-U.S. presidential election last … Continued
Post-presidential election last November, a fire was lit under U.S. small-caps. Between November 8 and December 9, IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) jumped north of 16 percent. QQQ (PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF) only rallied two percent during the period. As … Continued
Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy. In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued