The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster. That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent. The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued
It has been a consistent theme post-Great Recession. U.S. businesses have persistently disappointed when it comes to capital expenditures. It does not look like we will see a trend change anytime soon. The National Federation of Independent Business, representing small … Continued
U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued
2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals. While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued
The U.S. factory report out yesterday has ignited a ray of hope. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (proxy for business capital expenditures) in particular were revised higher. March went from $68.19 billion to $68.71 billion, and February from $68.54 … Continued
Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum. Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014. One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator. Net shorts went up 67 … Continued