The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
Despite the rout in stocks that August and September experienced, the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) is alive and well. From low to high, the S&P 500 index rallied eight plus percent between August 24 and September 17, followed by a seven-plus percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Do non-commercials have it right? Their net shorts in Russell 2000 futures peaked at 46,064 contracts on August 18, a week before stocks, including small-caps, bottomed. Since then, they have gradually been reducing their bearish bias, with holdings at -27,708 … Continued
With all the hand-wringing over whether or not the August lows will hold, this is the least of bulls’ worries. Bigger challenges probably lie ahead. Of the big four – the S&P 500 index, the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq composite, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, post-FOMC decision not to hike, stocks fell. They had rallied strongly into the meeting, and were probably set to drop either … Continued
Within a month, RVX, the Russell 2000 Volatility Index, has gone from 17.34 to 46.66 to now back down to 23.70. Volatility has been very volatile. Going back to early 2013, RVX has found support at 14, consistently rising off … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued
If we just focus on Charts 1 and 2 and consider how they have behaved in the past, equity bulls have reason to be optimistic. Because of the equity rout leading up to the August 24th low, both charts reached … Continued