Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. In the first nine sessions of the year, the S&P 500 large cap index is up 1.6 percent. For the most part, the rally is driven by offensive sectors/industries, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market. Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high. Ten-year yields … Continued
Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. U.S. stocks quickly shook off the nervous energy of the last week of December. On December 27, the S&P 500 large cap index had a go at the December … Continued
In 2016, the so-called January barometer – the hypothesis that the first month sets the tone for the year – failed to deliver. The S&P 500 large cap index lost 5.1 percent last January, and was down 10.1 percent by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year. Two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012. In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued
Notice the plateauing to slightly rising red line in Chart 1? In the middle of January this year, 2017 operating earnings estimates of S&P 500 companies were started out at $141.11. At the time, 2016 estimates were just north of … Continued
Back in the week ended July 5 this year, non-commercials enthusiastically held 315,963 net longs in gold futures. That was an all-time high. These traders had been aggressively building positions since the week ended December 1 last year, when net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued