A battle is being fought between optimists and pessimists in the land of gold. Of late, the former is winning hands down. Near-term, the latter might at least get some reprieve. In the latest period (September 30), short interest on … Continued
One look at Chart 1, and U.S. equity bulls may have a reason to salivate. Or not. It can be a reason to worry as well. NYSE Group short interest is through the roof. Literally. By the end of September, … Continued
During the September 15-30 reporting period, short interest on SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, dropped 15 percent period-over-period (Chart 1). This was interesting because the ETF shed 2.9 percent during the period, having just tested the August 25th closing … Continued
Despite the rout in stocks that August and September experienced, the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) is alive and well. From low to high, the S&P 500 index rallied eight plus percent between August 24 and September 17, followed by a seven-plus percent … Continued
Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week. Operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have been persistently coming down for 2015 – from as high as $137.52 at the end of the second quarter last year to $110.98 as … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
Do non-commercials have it right? Their net shorts in Russell 2000 futures peaked at 46,064 contracts on August 18, a week before stocks, including small-caps, bottomed. Since then, they have gradually been reducing their bearish bias, with holdings at -27,708 … Continued
The third-quarter earnings season begins in a couple of weeks. Leading into this, operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have continued to come under pressure (Chart 1), with 2015 now standing at $111.08, which will be down 1.7 percent … Continued
Volatility has been the name of the game in stocks in the past month. Between the August 18th intra-day high of $209.59 and the August 24th intra-day low of $181.46, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost north of 13 … Continued
Within a month, RVX, the Russell 2000 Volatility Index, has gone from 17.34 to 46.66 to now back down to 23.70. Volatility has been very volatile. Going back to early 2013, RVX has found support at 14, consistently rising off … Continued