Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower. TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued
Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. In the first nine sessions of the year, the S&P 500 large cap index is up 1.6 percent. For the most part, the rally is driven by offensive sectors/industries, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market. Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times. Take your pick. The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high. Ten-year yields … Continued
Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. U.S. stocks quickly shook off the nervous energy of the last week of December. On December 27, the S&P 500 large cap index had a go at the December … Continued
In 2016, the so-called January barometer – the hypothesis that the first month sets the tone for the year – failed to deliver. The S&P 500 large cap index lost 5.1 percent last January, and was down 10.1 percent by … Continued
Quite a year 2016 turned out to be! Stocks did not quite get off the starting blocks in an ideal fashion. The S&P 500 large cap index opened 2016 down 1.5 percent on January 4 (was down as much as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year. Two … Continued
November NYSE margin debt increased 3.4 percent month-over-month to $500.4 billion. This is the fourth time in the series’ history it has crossed $500 billion. The first one occurred in April 2015 when debt rose to $507.2 billion – a … Continued