Bears are putting foot down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March. All this followed massive gains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 13.5k, up 85.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.72 percent) remains rangebound between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. There was some excitement among bond bears … Continued
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics currently. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier. … Continued
The recovery in the economy from recent lows has been uneven. In equities, the S&P 500 (large cap) rallied to a new high last Friday, while the Russell 2000 (small cap) was rejected at a crucial resistance. Amidst this, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months. … Continued
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it. A pullback to successfully retest the breakout will greatly strengthen … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 73.2k, up 44.1k. The 10-year treasury yield lost five basis points this week to 0.54 percent. Five-month support at 0.57 percent has been breached. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year. There were two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 30, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 31k, up 24.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield cannot break the logjam. Since bottoming on March 9th at 0.40 percent, rates have pretty much been … Continued