Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.6k, down 99.5k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year-note futures by nearly 100,000 contracts this week, to 471,578. In the week to February 28, … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
US equities surprisingly were surprised by Powell’s hawkish message on Wednesday. He seems very determined to bring inflation down no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy. This will have repercussions for earnings, which then will reverberate through … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 3, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 147.5k, up 29.7k. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we are moving expeditiously to bring it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued
For the second time in five weeks, the S&P 500 charted out a bullish weekly hammer. Sentiment readings are suppressed, although non-commercials are at risk of being too bullish. Near-term, the path of least resistance is up – magnitude and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 285.1k, up 111k. After back-to-back weekly spinning tops in 10-year treasury rates in the last two weeks, bond bears (on price) defended 1.86 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 201.9k, down 73k. The minutes for the January 25-26 meeting are scheduled for next Wednesday. This was the year’s first FOMC meeting, during which … Continued