In all five sessions last week, spot VIX got rejected at 16.50, which at the time also approximated the upper Bollinger Band. This is not any plain-vanilla resistance. It goes back two decades. More often than not, once VIX convincingly … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 3, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the Bank of Japan shocked markets by not adding to its stimulus program. The yen jumped 2.4 percent. This week, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two different central-bank meetings, and two different market reactions this week. Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, has a habit of surprising the … Continued
With five sessions to go in April, the Nasdaq 100 index (4474.19) is down 0.2 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index (1146.69) is up 2.9 percent. Last week made a big difference, as the former was down 1.5 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: That this is even being discussed in the press and among economists is a sign of how insane things have gotten in central … Continued
On Wednesday, spot VIX (13.95) did something it had not done in a while. It dropped below 13, to 12.50, before reversing with a hammer candle (Chart 1). The last time it had a sub-13 session was on October 28th … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued
U.S. stocks look vulnerable here. The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting were released this week, and there was nothing substantially new. That said, maybe because FOMC … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued