U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
As of Monday this month, XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) is down 6.3 percent. This followed a 6.6-percent rally in January. Since early September last year through last week’s high of $30.33, it jumped 27.5 percent. Both the weekly and … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
Having stopped responding to improving U.S. fundamentals, the US dollar index currently sits at a confluence of technical support. The U.S. economy in recent quarters has put up strong numbers. Real GDP in 4Q17 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued
U.S. equity bulls supposedly got the green signal from the January effect, which postulates that as goes January so goes the year. The S&P 500 large cap index was up a strong 5.6 percent in the first month of the … Continued
U.S. consumers are alive and well. There is both good and bad in this – good now but potentially bad down the road. Consumer spending in December rose 0.4 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $13.7 trillion. … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market is in upheaval. So to speak. Ten-year Treasury yields have broken out. Chart 1 is a monthly chart. If in the next couple of sessions, these yields stay north of at least 2.5 percent – … Continued
Spot gold ($1,352.10/ounce) sits at a crucial technical juncture. A breakout would send a loud and clear message. Since bottoming at $1,045.40 in December 2015 through last week’s high of $1,365.40, gold quietly rallied nearly 31 percent. Stocks did better … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last. (The … Continued