The bull market in U.S. stocks is nine years old. While this alone does not necessarily sound the death knell for this aging bull, this is not a time to remain unambiguously sanguine either. Last Friday, the bull turned nine, … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 16-28 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Post-February 9 low/reversal, XLB (61.32) rallied to test the 50-day moving average, but was rejected. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.2k, up 19.3k. On February 2, January’s private-sector average hourly earnings were reported, and they rose 2.89 percent year-over-year, to $26.74. This was the … Continued
There was non-confirmation between the spike in VIX a month ago and U.S. high-yield spreads. Depending on which one is sending the right signal will have consequences for whether or not 15-16 support on VIX holds. On February 6, spot … Continued
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 – signed into law on December 22 last year – allows U.S. companies to repatriate the cash they have socked away overseas by paying 15.5 percent, rather than the previous 35 percent. … Continued
As talk of potential trade war heats up, attention has shifted to U.S. small-caps. Deserved or too simplistic? Early last week, the Russell 2000 small cap index tried to take out not one but two levels of resistance – the … Continued
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda! What could have been $9.93 in profit in a hypothetical XLE trade is now only worth $1.83. Culprit? Trying to play it too cute plus greed. Since peaking on January 25 at $66.66/barrel, spot West Texas Intermediate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued
There are signs growth is decelerating, but from a healthy level. Data relating to orders and inventories do not yet seem to be a problem, but worth watching. Most of this week’s economic data offered more of a downside surprise … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) During the reporting period, XLB (60.71) went from 62.95 at January-end to an intraday low … Continued