After Decent Rally, US Equity Indices Rejected At Resistance – Path Of Least Resistance Down N/T

After rallies that lasted a little over two weeks, selling began on major US equity indices last week right at important resistance.  This likely continues near term. US capacity utilization in March rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.3 percent year-over-year … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell … Continued

Manufacturing, Small-Business/Consumer Optimism At Multi-Year High – Inventories Worth Close Watch

posted in: Economy | 0

After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November.  It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17.  This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued

Decent Rally In Stocks Past Couple Of Weeks – Risks Rising N/T

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices continue to try to repair the technical damage they sustained in February and March.  After a decent rally in the past couple of weeks, risks are rising near term. Foreigners sold $1.2 billion in US stocks … Continued

Indices Getting Overbought N/T – Earnings Season Underway, With Adverse Friday Reaction

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

If investor/trader reaction last Friday to financials’ 1Q18 results is any indication, we are in for some interesting weeks ahead. First-quarter earnings season began in earnest last week.  For 1Q18, the sell-side expects $35.63 in operating earnings from S&P 500 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, down 44.7k. Annual core CPI rose stronger-than-expected 2.12 percent in March.  This was the first year-over-year reading with a two handle in a … Continued

Gold Attacks Crucial Resistance, Which Likely Cracks – If Not Right Away, Later

posted in: Commodities, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

Gold is hammering on crucial resistance.  This has been going on for a while now.  A breakout will happen – sooner or later. Kudos to the gold bugs, they are at it again. Once again, they are hammering on resistance … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the March 16-29 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) After remaining under the 200-day moving average since March 22, XLB (57.99) retook the average … Continued