Major US equity indices are at/past late-January highs. Investor sentiment, on the other hand, is nowhere near as giddy. Is this good or bad? The Russell 2000 small cap index (1722.54) just broke out of a two-month pennant. Of major … Continued
QQQ bulls faced channel resistance a month ago, but defended channel support of different duration. They are, however, facing headwinds of waning momentum. The bull-bear tug of war continues on QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust). On July 25, bulls were rejected … Continued
Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week. They have the ball near term. Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong. The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
Corporate bond issuance continues to surprise on the downside. While some technical factors could be responsible for this, the deceleration comes amidst strong GDP growth. In July, US corporations issued $61 billion in total, made up of $52.5 billion in … Continued
Small-caps have rallied nicely year-to-date. Supposedly, they benefit the most from last December’s tax cuts and are also considered insulated from negative effects of a trade war. They now sit at critical technical juncture. Over the last eight weeks, the … Continued
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the July 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB ($59.54) bulls continued to defend a rising trend line from early April. At the … Continued
US economic data of late have been coming in strong. Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18. This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters. As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued