In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts. This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1). The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 15, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Major central banks are in a race as to who can ‘shock and awe’ the markets the most. On January 29th, Haruhiko Kuroda, … Continued
Three months. That is all it took for the Fed to do a 360. In the middle of last December, the fed funds rate was raised for the first time in nine years – to still-zero-bound 37 basis points. The … Continued
Back in the middle of December, when the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nine years, the FOMC’s dot plot optimistically forecasted four quarter-point hikes this year. On December 16th – the day the FOMC statement came out … Continued
On February 11th, spot gold closed up 4.1 percent to $1,263.9/ounce, surging intra-day as much as 5.6 percent (blue arrow in Chart 1). It was a high-volume session. A healthy $535 million moved into GLD, the SPDR gold ETF, in … Continued
U.S. corporate earnings have been in serious deceleration. This is no news. They have been decelerating for a while now. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have declined for five straight quarters annually. Chart … Continued
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it. Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
In the latest reporting period, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, shorts stayed put. In fact, at 280.4 million, short interest fell a tad period-over-period – now at a two-month low (Chart 1). Odds favor shorts are about to get … Continued
Major U.S. indices are struggling at major resistance. Here are the levels indices were aiming to take out: Dow Industrials, 17000-plus; S&P 500, 1990; Nasdaq 100, 4350; Dow Transports, 7700; and Russell 2000, 1080, among others. The Industrials sought to … Continued