The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth. So the saying goes. Why bring this up? There is a sudden uptick … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
Post-Brexit two-session sell-off in stocks was a clear risk-off. The S&P 500 large cap index dropped 5.3 percent in those two sessions. The subsequent four-session, 5.1-percent surge through last Friday was risk-on. Risk-off quickly followed by risk-on! The average investor … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Chart 1 in yesterday’s post drew many e-mail responses, some of which were critical. Critical because the post used a trailing price to earnings (P/E) for the S&P 500 index, rather than forward. To refresh, the chart used a four-quarter … Continued
If the past couple of weeks were an indication, bulls and bears are locked in a vicious tug of war over the near- and medium-term direction of crude oil. From the February 11th low to the June 9th high, spot … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued