Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 545.1k, up 133.7k. The 10-year treasury yield sits at a crucial juncture. It ended this week at 3.48 percent. Around 3.4 percent lies important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 411.4k, up 27.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has his hands full. He wants to slow down the US economy to bring inflation under … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.6k, up 39.4k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting, out Wednesday, essentially repeated what the post-meeting statement and/or Chair Jerome Powell said in … Continued
It is common these days for technical indicators to misfire. Amidst this, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio is acting strange; if past is prelude, it is signaling a massive rally in US equities, but at a time when distortions prevail, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 344.2k, up 27.3k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 316.9k, down 59.5k. The Bank of Japan, which began to use its balance sheet as a policy tool much earlier than its peers in … Continued
The BoJ took everyone by surprise this week. Shocked markets have concluded that the central bank, which lagged its global peers in rate tightening, has no other alternative than to join them. In the futures market, non-commercials’ net shorts in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.4k, up 7.2k. “Don’t fight the Fed” is an oft-quoted phrase in financial markets. When post-2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 369.2k, up 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The day the two-day meeting begins, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November’s consumer price … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied 5.4 percent in November. There were concurrently five one-or-higher CBOE equity-only put-to-call-ratio sessions, with three having registered in up days. This is not normal. The 21-day moving average of the ratio at mid-0.80s on Wednesday cannot … Continued