Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity. Sort of. Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating. This resistance goes back to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm. This … Continued
Down 5.6 percent from intraday peak to trough in 19 sessions, and then up 4.1 percent from low to high in five. The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to play ping pong between range support and resistance. Last Friday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year. … Continued
After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias. In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher. Are they right? Since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued
After weeks of staying subdued, there was some spring in volatility’s feet this week. Will it last or peter out as has been the case for the umpteenth time post-election? Tuesday’s 10-percent rally in spot VIX (12.81) was the largest … Continued
Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months? Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent. Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up. The US dollar index down. Ten-year Treasury yields down. This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued