With 2015 now in the annals of history, the message that came out can be described as mixed at best and bearish at worst. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent last year – essentially flat (Chart 1). The Nasdaq … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index advanced 5.2 percent year-over-year in October. This was the fastest growth since July last year. However, annual price appreciation has been decelerating since peaking at 10.9 percent two years ago. The October 2013 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent. December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued
Sales of existing homes collapsed 10.5 percent month-over-month in November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million units. This was the first time since February this year sales came in below five million. November sales were nearly 15 … Continued
In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
December thus far has been uncharacteristically quiet. And that is putting it nicely. U.S. stocks have failed to get seasonal traction this month. So far. There are eight sessions remaining before the year is out. So there is hope. Since … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued