BLS’ January oil-and-gas-extraction data gives false sense of security Challenger survey shows 20k energy job-cuts in Jan, more than in all of 2014 Boom bust normal in U.S. oil patch, but shale boom of last five years like no other … Continued
Growth rate of U.S. exports decelerating since 2Q14 At north of 13 percent, exports’ share of GDP remains very high Surging $ no good news for exports; some signs of fatigue, but buck’s momentum intact The advance estimate of real … Continued
U.S. consumer confidence has surged since July 2014 Decent inverse correlation between gas price and consumer sentiment No correlation between personal consumption expenditures and consumer sentiment Consumer confidence is soaring in the U.S. Since July 2014, the Thomson Reuters/University of … Continued
Signs late last week WTI itching to move higher play out perfectly Oil as much a physical commodity as it is for investment/speculative purposes After 20-plus-percent move in four sessions, healthy if it retreats and finds support at 47 Some … Continued
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures intensifying globally Fed favorite core PCE inflation persistently under two percent despite three QE’s Bonds do not see inflation as far as eye can see, signal slowdown in activity; stocks continue merry way Monday morning, investors will learn … Continued
Setback in orders for business-capex proxy; down four consecutive months Inventory-to-order ratios, nowhere near previous peaks, trending higher Zero-bound suppressed rates probably impacting incentive to borrow The much-anticipated capex boom in the U.S. will just have to wait a while … Continued
As FOMC meets, markets will be looking for clues on rate-hike timing Consensus, which had been betting on mid-year hike, vacillating of late Lower-than-expected inflation, strong dollar excuses for Fed not to move The Federal Open Market Committee begins its … Continued
As oil price buckles, increase in talk of need to focus on S&P 500 earnings ex-energy Collapse in energy earnings important factor, but SPX ests were too rosy to begin with Sell-side struggles to wrap arms around energy repercussions; hard … Continued
Draghi finally delivers, igniting a global rally in stocks Here in U.S., sustainability in doubt unless stocks attract some of that money U.S. households not likely to be source of funds as money market funds lower than pre-crisis As expected, … Continued
U.S. home builder sentiment chirpy, near multi-year highs Just a matter of time before sentiment follows home sales/starts lower Stocks follow builder sentiment; ITB perilously close to breaking crucial support Hope springs eternal. U.S. home builders are an optimistic bunch. … Continued