CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday.  In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent.  This … Continued

Gold Regains Some Luster, Runs Into Resistance – How Non-Commercials, ETF Flows Behave At Support Telling

Gold has regained its shine.  Sort of.  In the past three months, the metal has rallied 23 percent.  At the same time, it is running into important resistance, including Fibonacci and eight-year horizontal.  The metal likely takes a breather near … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued

Corporate Bond Issuance Soft – No, Not Due To Rise In Risk-Off Sentiment, But Maybe Owing To Reduced Corporate Buybacks

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In the first eight months, US corporate bond issuance remained soft – relatively.  This is not due a sudden rise in risk-off sentiment toward corporate bonds.  They remain well bid.  Rather, reduced corporate buybacks for the most part may have … Continued

For Several Weeks, Bulls Bought Support, Bears Sold Resistance – Latter Could Get Active N/T

August for the most part saw bulls buy support and bears sell resistance.  This worked out pretty well for both camps.  In essence, after a late-July/early-August brief selloff, both put their foot down.  Last week, major US equity indices rallied … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding.  Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent.  It offered €2 … Continued

Stars Lining Up For Decent Rally In Stocks

After rallying in June and most of July, stocks began selling off late last month.  Bulls nonetheless have managed to defend major support, even as stars seem to be lining up for them – magnitude and duration notwithstanding. Bulls are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 414.3k, up 23.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.54 percent) shed 20 more basis points this week.  In fact, at the lows rates were down … Continued

Small-Business Optimism Near Record Highs, Several Sub-Indexes Diverge

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-business optimism continues to remain near all-time highs, although several sub-indexes are diverging, including profit trend, which the Russell 2000 closely tracks. The NFIB optimism index rose 1.4 points month-over-month in July to 104.7.  This was the 32nd consecutive month … Continued