Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
The 12-month total of US budget deficit just crossed $1 trillion. Treasury issuance is well over $900 billion. Foreigners at the same time have been reducing exposure to US notes and bonds. If the trend persists, this is bound to … Continued
Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation. Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy. But it can get frothier. This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent. Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued
US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now. Markets are not a least bit bothered. They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy. In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week. This was a third straight cut … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets. Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease. Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued
Amid continued signs of macro deceleration, next year’s estimates for small-caps continue higher. The Russell 2000 index, however, is not quite buying this optimism. Last week, it led its large-cap peers, but remains under crucial resistance. Should small-caps come under … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity. Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued