That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued
Through June, foreigners continued to bail out of U.S. stocks. They sold $6.8 billion worth. This was the fifth consecutive month of net selling, during which cumulatively they reduced holdings by $45.5 billion. On a 12-month rolling total basis, April … Continued
Following up on Tuesday’s blog, here is some additional food of thought on XLY, the SPDR consumer discretionary ETF. Three sessions ago, it arguably broke out of a five-week congestion; the ETF rose to a new intra-day high of $82.38, … Continued
XLY, the SPDR consumer discretionary ETF, acts well. It just broke out to a new high, as did its top three holdings – Amazon (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), and Comcast Corporation (CMCSA). These three make up 12.7 percent, 7.3 percent … Continued
To say that stocks have diverged from a whole host of things ranging from earnings to Treasury bonds to crude oil to economic data is an understatement. This is not some new phenomenon … has been going on for a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued
Back in 2013, by August 20th, non-commercials had built 116,317 contracts in net shorts in VIX futures. In the next 10 weeks (by October 29th), net shorts dropped to 39,673 (Chart 1). Intra-day, spot VIX jumped from 11.83 on August … Continued
U.S. equities continue to enjoy short-interest tailwind, but are likely to face difficulty doing so in the weeks to come. In the latest period, on an index level, short interest continued to drop. The July 15-29 two-week period saw it … Continued
U.S. tech stocks have come to life. The Nasdaq composite (5213.14) is within spitting distance of its all-time high 5231.94 of July last year. On a weekly closing basis, last week was a new record. The Nasdaq 100 index (4784.74) … Continued