Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
Back on October 12th when SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, was trading at $201.52, October 16th weekly 202.50 calls were hypothetically sold for $0.84. Once assigned, this resulted in effective short at $203.34. Three weekly short puts later, and … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued
On the surface, the carnage in stocks last Friday may look like it came out of nowhere, but signs were there. Up until December 1st, the S&P 500 large cap index was a mere 1.5 percent off the all-time high … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day meeting, the year’s last and a highly anticipated one, ends Wednesday. A rate hike is widely expected. The fed funds rate has been stuck near zero for the past nine years. Markets currently … Continued
Small-caps have a big problem. Investors do not fancy them, and it has been a while. Having peaked last June, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, with at least one false breakout, has lagged its large-cap brethren. There probably are … Continued
After the drubbing stocks took post-ECB disappointment last Thursday, bulls could not have asked for better reaction on Friday. Stocks in general recouped Thursday’s loss, and then some. The S&P 500 index rallied 2.1 percent on Friday (Chart 1), in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
For a while IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lagged other major U.S. indices. The ETF, as well as the Russell 2000 index are still below their respective August 17th highs, which preceded a five-day, 11-percent cliff dive (Chart 1). … Continued