Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance. After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling. How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued
The 1Q19 earnings season is upon us. Expected growth has softened. The bar is low. The sell-side expects growth to pick up speed in the second half. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to grow 9.1 percent this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 1-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (54.56) short interest fell to a seven-month low. Shorts probably feared a breakout at … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points. This was expected. What was not expected was the dovish … Continued
The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady. No surprise there. But the bank was even more dovish than markets expected. That was a surprise. Even more surprising is how stocks reacted. The Fed Wednesday left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
Stocks continue to trudge higher. Volume is low and action listless. But price tells us otherwise. Amidst this, some divergences are showing up, and they are worth paying attention. Equity bulls deserve kudos. Since the October-December decline last year, they … Continued
The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued