After a decent three-week rally, the Russell 2000 hit a ceiling just short of 1600 two weeks ago. It closed last week right on the 200-day. A convincing breach raises the odds of a test of support at 1450s. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
After giving out signs of fatigue several times in the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq dropped 1.5 percent Tuesday, losing the 50-day. More downward pressure is likely near term. At the same time, it is possible bears will end … Continued
The bull market is more than a decade old. Several metrics are at/near record territory. The energizer bunny keeps marching on. In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of new highs. The bull market has come a long way, sending the ratio of S&P 500 market cap to nominal GDP to near record territory. Unwinding is a matter of when, not … Continued
For the second consecutive month in July, foreigners were net purchasers of US equities, not sellers. They bought $24.3 billion worth, followed by $26.4 billion in June. This preceded 13 straight months of selling. On a 12-month basis, foreigners are … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from their respective highs. Daily momentum indicators are extended. Breakout retests are the path of least resistance. The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point cut to a range of 175 to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Bulls have managed to wrest control of momentum near term. Bears had an opportunity late July-early August when in seven sessions intraday the S&P 500 lost 6.8 percent. Bulls put their foot down near crucial support just north of 2800. … Continued