Covering XLE Short — For Now
If the past couple of weeks were an indication, bulls and bears are locked in a vicious tug of war over the near- and medium-term direction of crude oil. From the February 11th low to the June 9th high, spot … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
Spot VIX Flashes Spike Reversal
The last data point in Chart 1 is as of yesterday and uses intra-day highs rather than the close. The VIX-to-VXV ratio is calculated by using 22.89 for VIX and 23.53 for VXV. They respectively closed the session at 19.37 … Continued
XLE’s Path Of Least Resistance Down — At Least Near Term
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued
S&P 500 Fails At Crucial Resistance, Bears Smell Opportunity
In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent. Not much. But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 7, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Bank of Korea on Thursday eased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1.25 percent. The move … Continued
XLF, Rallying Along 2-Year Treasury Yield, Likely To Offer Opportunity To Shorts In Due Course
The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight. The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued
Risk/Reward Favors S&P 500 Shorts Near- To Medium-Term
The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 31, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 14-15, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fourth meeting, and there will be four more left after this (July 26-27, … Continued
GLD Cash-Secured Put – Willing To Go Long Near Support
Spot gold potentially had an important session on Tuesday. Since the May 2nd high of $1,306/ounce through Tuesday’s hammer low, the metal gave back eight percent, in the process losing its now-declining 50-day moving average. The Tuesday low likely came … Continued