As 2014 began, growth expectations were very high for the U.S. economy. In fact, every year since the recession ended mid-2009, economists’ GDP forecasts have been on the optimistic side, only to be progressively cut back as the year progresses. … Continued
Unlike in the past when equities have shown a strong correlation with each other, increasingly they are marching to the tunes of different drummers. Consider the DJI. It has flat-lined for five months now, and it feels like it is … Continued
The euro has been in an incessant rally mode since July 2012, and particularly since July 2013. This has surprised a lot of observers as this has come in the face of what in ordinary circumstances could/should have resulted in … Continued
NYSE margin debt declined slightly to $450.3bn in March from February’s all-time high of $465.7bn. This is a minor drop, but going by the two major previous peaks this millennium, this has the potential to be an important reversal in … Continued
Equities are acting confused – almost schizophrenic – not able to make up mind whether they want to move up or down. They have been on a roller-coaster ride lately. An active trader could not be asking for a better … Continued
After having flashed decent enough of a signal last week that volatility was ready to move lower – hence higher odds of higher equity prices – the VIX has indeed pulled back. Equities are rallying; volume could be better, but … Continued
There was a lot of excitement early this week after U.S. retail-sales data were released. At 1.14 percent, month/month change in retail and food services was the highest since September 2012. ‘Motor vehicles & parts dealers’ helped a great deal … Continued
It increasingly looks like the market wants to move higher – at least in the near-term. The past several days, it has been choppy, a lot of back-and-forth, marked by dojis (on a chart). Today was no exception – opens … Continued
Are we there yet? Have we yet reached the escape velocity? You know the 6.96 miles-per-second speed needed to break free from the gravitational pull of the earth. I am of course figuratively referring to the prevalent expectations that the … Continued