The U.S. sovereign bond market is in upheaval. So to speak. Ten-year Treasury yields have broken out. Chart 1 is a monthly chart. If in the next couple of sessions, these yields stay north of at least 2.5 percent – … Continued
Spot gold ($1,352.10/ounce) sits at a crucial technical juncture. A breakout would send a loud and clear message. Since bottoming at $1,045.40 in December 2015 through last week’s high of $1,365.40, gold quietly rallied nearly 31 percent. Stocks did better … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last. (The … Continued
Of late, the U.S. dollar has defied expectations. Since peaking at 103.82 early January last year through Thursday’s intraday low, the US dollar index (89.23) dropped 15 percent. This was a period in which U.S. economic fundamentals have been decent … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the January 1-12, 2018 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) On the 16th this month, XLB (63.39) rose to 63.66 intraday but only to … Continued
Homebuilder-focused ETF’s are at/near record highs. Momentum is intact, but builder sentiment – also at multi-year highs – is worth watching. Homebuilding stocks are on fire. XHB (SPDR S&P homebuilders ETF) is already up 5.6 percent for the year. Monday, … Continued
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade. As they usually are. These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields peaked in September 1981 at 15.8 percent, then dropped all the way to bottom at 1.34 percent in July 2016. Some bull market in bonds! On an absolute basis, the 10-year is still trapped in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued