After a decent three-week rally, the Russell 2000 hit a ceiling just short of 1600 two weeks ago. It closed last week right on the 200-day. A convincing breach raises the odds of a test of support at 1450s. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent. It offered €2 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 414.3k, up 23.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.54 percent) shed 20 more basis points this week. In fact, at the lows rates were down … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 390.9k, up 7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.73 percent) dropped to 1.6 percent intraday Wednesday – the lowest since September 2016. July that year, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
Small-caps get no love, even as large-caps rally to new highs. Non-commercials’ bearish position in Russell 2000 mini-index futures is near an 11-year high. At some point in the future, these holdings can provide a tailwind to the cash, as … Continued