VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued
VIX witnessed a spike reversal last week, before coming under massive downward pressure this week, helping equities. Equity bulls could receive further help should Friday’s CPI behave. It turns out VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. On Friday, it … Continued
The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued
The 2Q earnings season begins in earnest next week. Ahead of this, major equity indices are at or near their highs. The revision trend was positive throughout the quarter. Investors heavily bought into this. Their post-earnings reaction will be telling. … Continued
As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three. Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued
Since the intraday low on Boxing Day, SPY is up nearly 11 percent. Too far, too fast? Possibly, as the ETF is just a hair breadth away from support-turned-resistance at 260, which it lost mid-December. The Fed has a dual … Continued
After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade. Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued