CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  It is this year’s eighth and last meeting.  Markets do not expect the Fed to move.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent.  Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity.  Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued

Post-June Jobs, Powell Has Chance This Week To Show Markets Rate Expectations Are Aggressive

June’s stronger-than-expected payroll print has the potential to change the Fed’s interest-rate outlook for the remainder of the year.  Markets still expect at least two 25-basis-point cuts this year, including one later this month.  Should Chair Jay Powell wish to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls.  There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent.  This week, it … Continued