U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion. As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 25, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Please keep in mind that these holdings are as of Tuesday. By then, from high to low the S&P 500 was down 12.5 percent. In … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday. The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year? The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 21, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Is global growth slowing? The ongoing slump in commodities seems to suggest that. In this scenario, it would make sense for investors to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her mid-week Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reiterated her desire to hike interest rates later this year, if data cooperate. On … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After the June FOMC minutes were released, investors pushed back expectations for the first interest rate hike to March next year. The minutes … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 30, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials continue to reduce net shorts – currently lowest since September 23rd last year. They have reduced net shorts by 98 percent in … Continued