As of last Friday, only 32.6 percent of S&P 500 stocks were above 50-day moving average, earlier having dropped to 29.8 percent on Wednesday. This compares to 22 percent on June 27 (orange arrow in Chart 1) when the S&P … Continued
Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued
Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent. It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session. The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued
10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid. A … Continued
Balance sheets have diverged between Fed and ECB As eurozone economy/inflation fall short, ECB under pressure to do QE If there is no QE from ECB, euro probably has a lot of catching up to do on the upside There … Continued
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued
Improvement in gold’s price action in recent sessions Key will be if non-commercials begin to add to net long gold futures Looks to be bottoming, but still tentative; short GLD puts safe way to go for now Gold ($1,187.9) is … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
NYSE margin debt rises slightly in August, hovers near all-time highs Since 2009, margin debt has closely tracked expansion/contraction in Fed’s balance sheet Margin debt to drop when institutions, badly looking for buyers to sell into, run out of patience … Continued